PRECOGNITION – the problem of free will

I must state before I start this particular story that I am quite a sceptic at heart, mathematically and scientifically inclined.

At the age of 9 I had a feeling that I gained some superpowers. I could make kids in my class trip up at a distance and things of that sort. I told my closest friends in class and decided I was going to prove to them my immense powers by creating an earthquake. I gave them a specific day; “in 3 days time”... then for three days before I went to bed I visualised a quake. On the 4th day I showed up at school thinking I had failed but instead I found all my friends freaked out, one of them holding a newspaper. The previous day one of the largest quakes of the century had struck a few hundred miles from us. On the front page they wrote of victims in the hundreds. I can still remember the shock and the guilt I felt. From that day I decided I would never use my powers again to hurt people even if I got very angry at someone.
Looking back I can certainly give the more mundane explanation; that most kids at that age think they have superpowers and most will try them out. I can imagine there are thousands of kids out there who feel they might have caused a quake, a flood or a crash. Many kids might have had a so called premonitory dream and felt responsible for what happened after. In both these cases we can see how a bad understanding of probability and selection bias might mislead us not to see the obvious; that these are COINCIDENCES.

The problem I have with that is that I had in the years that followed many cases of Precognition. Flashes of near future events (often not linked with what I was doing at the time) that would come true. I decided to read a few SCEPTIC books (Why People Believe Weird Things by Michael Shermes, Viaggio nel mondo del paranormale by Piero Angela, etc.) but though they made sense on
most things, I wasn’t 100% convinced.

I still get flashes of precognition and with my super sceptic analysis of statistics, probabilities, and mind selection bias, unconscious perception, etc. I can discard most of them. But there are still some that are so strong that they test even the hardest sceptic, such as “oh I’m going to be shocked to see a green Ferrari around the next corner and then seeing one and being shocked (it wasn’t a pretty sight!). Or at the casino, having a flash of getting two consecutive numbers right at a roulette, declaring it out loud to my friends next to me and proceeding to win the next 2 bets with 2 en pleins. (no, I hadn’t been 1296 times to the casino stating “I will get 2 numbers in a row” each time).

At this point I decided to research a little and ask about a possible parapsychological explanation (those were pre Wikipedia days, so I asked an esoteric bookshop owner in France). Of the various theories and explanations, the one I prefer is that our “soul” is made of a few subatomic particles that centre around our bodies, in the present. These are free to move a little away from our body and also (following quantum laws of physics) a little away from the present into the past or into the future. Then upon returning from, say, the future, some of the “memory” of what they perceived is passed to our consciousness. This is usually just a flash or a sensation due to the limited number of particles carrying the information.

The “soul” could be made of Tachyons or psitrons, time travelling particles with imaginary mass. Or more simply our awareness could be fundamentally trans-temporal as discussed by Dunne (1927) and Saltmarsh (1938) and while we are only ever consciously aware of some limited temporal range, unconsciously a much wider temporal range of information is sampled and used for the benefit of the organism.

Besides the fact Tachyons have never been observed, violation of causality and temporal paradoxes all seem to point to their non existence. But even supposing that somehow precognition was possible, what fascinates me is the concept of free will.

Is what I see in the future going to happen no matter what I do ? If so free will is only an illusion created by our limited conscious awareness that only allows us to see one frame at a time instead of the whole film stock. More on free will in a future post.

A Gothic Story on time illusion

Don Juan Manuel    (1285 - 1348)

I just read a short story by Don Juan Manuel entitled El Brujo Postergado. It is a fascinating story of an ambitious dean of Santiago who wanted to learn the art of magic to progress in his ecclesiastical career. He hears Don Illan of Toledo was unsurpassed in the art of Necromancy and promptly travels to Toledo to learn it.

Does it talk about time ?

Yes, in fact I see this story as one of the earliest example of the Sci-fi genre. It talks of magic as a science and of time travel and was written in the early 14th Century.

For those who are interested the story goes more or less as follows:

The day the dean arrived at Don Illan's house he is received with kindness, and was asked to give the reason of his visit only after sitting for a nice lunch. After the lunch the dean asked to learn the science of magic. Don Illan said he could guess in the dean a man of good position and good future and that he feared he'd forget him one day. The dean promised him that his favours would never be forgotten and that he would always be at his service.

That matter settled, Don Illan explained that the magical arts could be learned in a secluded place, taking him by the hand he lead the dean to an adjoining room on the floor of which was a large iron ring. He told his maid to prepare some partridges for dinner but not to start roasting them before he'd give the order. They raised the ring and went down a well carved stone staircase, so deep it felt they were below the bed of river Tagus. They reached a large cell with a library and just as they started reviewing the books, two men entered the room with a letter from the dean’s uncle the Bishop of Santiago, which informed him that he was very ill and wished to see him.
The dean was upset about his uncle’s health but mostly for having to interrupt his studies and therefore opted to send an apology letter to the Bishop. Three days later some men came in mourning announcing the death of the Bishop. They told the dean they were in the process of electing a successor and that they hoped, by the grace of God, it would be him. They also told him the election could very well take place in his absence.

Ten days later came two well dressed squires who threw themselves at his feet, kissed his hand and greeted him Bishop. Don Illan thanked the lord for such good news delivered to his house and promptly asked the Bishop for the vacant seat of dean for his son, but the Bishop informed him that he had reserved that seat for his own brother but asked him to travel with him to Santiago. Upon their arrival they were greeted with honours. Six months later the Bishop received a messenger from the Pope offering him the post of Archbishop of Toulouse, leaving him the choice of a successor. Don Illan reminded him of his ancient promise and asked for his son to succeed him but the Archbishop said he had reserved it for his uncle, brother of his father, but asked him to leave with him to Toulouse. Don Illan had to agree.

Upon their arrival they were greeted with honours and masses. Two years later, messengers from the Pope offered him the Cardinal’s hat, leaving him the choice for a successor. Don Illan reminded him of his ancient promise but the Cardinal informed him the post of Archbishop was reserved for his own uncle, brother of his mother, but decided to take him to Rome. Don Illan had to agree.

Upon their arrival they were greeted with honours, masses and processions. Four years later the Pope died and the Cardinal was elected to the papacy. When don Illan heard this he kissed the feet of His Holiness and reminded him of his ancient promise asking the Cardinal’s hat for his son. The Pope threatened to imprison him, for he knew well that he was a sorcerer and that in Toledo he practiced magic arts. The poor Don Illan said he would return to Spain and asked the Pope for some food for the return journey but the Pope offered him none. At this point Don Illan spoke, in a voice without trembling:

“ Well, I’ll have to eat the partridges I ordered for tonight”. The maid appeared and don Illan told her she could go ahead and roast them now. Upon these words the Pope found himself in the underground cell , simple dean of Santiago, so ashamed of his ingratitude he could not even apologise. Don Illan told him the lesson was over, denied him his share of the partridges and accompanied him outside where he wished him a happy journey and dismissed him with much courtesy.

Don Juan Manuel (c.1330)

The Fourth Dimension by Rudy Rucker

If you have read Flatland and were left wondering about its implications regarding higher dimensions this book is a absolute must read. The book then goes much further than simply explaining the 4th spatial dimension and explores the possibilities of higher universes.

Does it talk about time ?

Extensively, in fact the third part, chapters 9, 10 and 11 all talk about time.
Rucker seems to favour the eternalist model and spends quite a lot of time describing, quite convincingly, a “block universe” in which past, present and future are all equally “real”.

St. Augustine wrote that God is outside of time and that Time exists only within the created universe. On this view, God would perceive something like a block universe, while we would be limited to seeing it frame by frame in the present.

He also writes of time cones, circular time and in chapter 10 analyses the implications of time travel.

In the final chapter "what is reality?" he imagines getting rid of all preconception and building from scratch. At the core he sees only 2 realities that he calls certain: “I exist and I perceive things. I could be a robot, a spirit, an eye of God, a software or who knows what, but I am sure I exist. I am sure I am the entity that is typing these words. You the reader could doubt of my existence, but you know for sure that you exist”

On the perception of things it’s a little trickier, Rucker talks about the philosopher George Berkeley, and his concept of reality, His concept of “spirit” is close to the concept of “conscious subject” or of “mind”, and the concept of “idea” is close to the concept of “sensation” or “state of mind” or “conscious experience”. Berkeley denied the existence of matter as a metaphysical substance, but did not deny the existence of objects such as apples or mountains. Berkeley’s claims on immaterialism has many followers today under the more common term of subjective idealism.

He also mentions quantum mechanics and the implication that might have on our perception of "reality".

All great food for thought.